After decades of steady relations, India now faces a foreign-policy challenge in Bangladesh as Dhaka undergoes a significant political and strategic realignment. Recent events highlight a potential erosion of India’s influence, and the rise of other regional actors, including Pakistan, further complicates the geopolitical landscape.

Pakistan’s Re-Entry

A notable indicator of this shift came last month when a Pakistani cargo ship docked in Chittagong—the first such occurrence in fifty years. Beyond trade, Bangladesh has resumed arms and ammunition acquisitions from Islamabad, bypassing full customs inspections for Pakistani imports. These developments signal a warming of ties between Dhaka and Pakistan, a stark contrast to the decades-long animosity stemming from Bangladesh’s secession in 1971.

The political context for this shift is Bangladesh’s interim government, which took power a few months ago. Mohammed Yunus, a Nobel-winning economist, emerged as the consensus leader after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepped down in August amid mass protests. Hasina’s departure not only surprised India but also undermined New Delhi’s longstanding relationship with Dhaka. Her administration, which worked closely with India, was a key pillar of regional stability for New Delhi. In contrast, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), long estranged from India, now stands ascendant, leaving New Delhi with few allies in Bangladesh.

Realignment: Internal Politics Drive Foreign Policy

What is unfolding in Bangladesh aligns with what international relations scholars term a foreign-policy realignment. Such realignments typically arise due to either external pressures or domestic political shifts. In this case, domestic politics are playing the decisive role. Hasina’s departure and the interim government’s actions reflect a recalibration of Dhaka’s foreign-policy priorities, with consequences for its relationship with India.

Under Hasina’s leadership, India and Bangladesh maintained a symbiotic partnership. Hasina cooperated with India on key issues, including countering Islamist forces, denying sanctuary to Indian insurgents, and fostering cross-border trade and connectivity. India, in turn, overlooked Bangladesh’s democratic shortcomings, facilitated market access, and invested heavily in infrastructure projects. This partnership, however, masked underlying tensions that are now surfacing in Hasina’s absence.

Bilateral Challenges Resurface

India’s concerns over irregular immigration from Bangladesh have long been a sensitive issue. Under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which came to power in 2014, the issue took on religious and political dimensions. In the run-up to India’s 2019 general elections, the BJP weaponised the immigration issue, fuelled by its Hindu-nationalist ideology. The resulting political rhetoric and accusations of religious bias created friction between New Delhi and Dhaka, even during Hasina’s tenure.

Tensions have escalated further following the arrest of a Hindu monk in Bangladesh last November, which sparked protests and accusations of minority persecution. The situation risks further deteriorating if Bangladeshi Hindus seek refuge in India. While a BJP-led government would likely offer sanctuary to these migrants, it would simultaneously criticise Dhaka’s handling of minority rights. This, in turn, could provoke a backlash from Bangladesh, with Dhaka assailing New Delhi for its treatment of Indian Muslims—exacerbating tensions on both sides.

Misinformation has only worsened the situation. Some Indian media outlets have amplified or misrepresented events in Bangladesh, portraying them as a “genocide” of Hindus. Such portrayals not only inflame public sentiment but also deepen mistrust between the two countries.

Teesta River Dispute

Another major sticking point between India and Bangladesh is the unresolved Teesta River water-sharing agreement. Despite resolving a similar dispute over the Ganges River in 1996, the two sides have been unable to finalise a Teesta agreement. India’s central government under the BJP has shown willingness to resolve the matter but has faced resistance from the state government of West Bengal, which borders Bangladesh. The Teesta issue remains a rallying point for anti-India voices in Bangladesh and adds to the growing resentment against New Delhi.

The Islamist Factor and Minority Concerns

Bangladesh’s internal political dynamics, particularly the resurgence of Islamist forces, further complicate India’s position. The groups that played a role in ousting Hasina include Islamists and anti-India elements, which are now emboldened. While the interim government has made rhetorical commitments to minority rights, fears remain among Bangladesh’s Hindu population, which has long faced persecution and violence. These developments have India more worried about Islamist militancy because Bangladesh’s instability could affect India’s border regions.

The political turmoil in Bangladesh signifies a significant shift in India’s foreign policy within the region. Hasina’s departure and the interim government’s warming ties with Pakistan underscore a broader realignment that limits New Delhi’s ability to shape Dhaka’s strategic outlook. India must now navigate a more uncertain and hostile environment in Bangladesh, addressing both bilateral challenges and the domestic forces driving this shift.

As regional dynamics evolve, New Delhi will need to reassess its approach to Dhaka, balancing its security concerns, economic interests, and geopolitical priorities to safeguard its influence in South Asia.